Nigeria TV Info 

US–Iran War: FG Records ₦5tn Oil Windfall Amid Rising Fuel Hardship

Nigeria’s Federal Government has recorded an estimated ₦5.13 trillion oil windfall within two months as global crude oil prices surged sharply following the escalating United States–Iran conflict, according to industry data and official market reports.

The crisis, which disrupted global oil supply routes and pushed crude above Nigeria’s budget benchmark, has significantly increased export earnings—but also deepened domestic fuel hardship.

Oil Price Surge Drives Revenue Boom

Data from Nigeria’s oil sector shows that Brent crude climbed from below $70 per barrel to peaks above $120, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude sold as high as $134 per barrel during the period.

The Federal Government’s 2026 budget was based on:

• 1.8 million barrels per day production
• $64.85 per barrel benchmark
• ₦1,400/$ exchange rate

However, actual market prices far exceeded projections, creating a large fiscal gap in Nigeria’s favour.

In March alone, higher crude prices generated about ₦1.19 trillion windfall, while April delivered an estimated ₦3.94 trillion, bringing the total to ₦5.13 trillion in additional revenue.

How the Windfall Happened

The war between the US and Iran triggered instability in the Middle East and raised fears over the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route handling nearly 20% of world supply.

This pushed global buyers to pay higher premiums for Nigerian crude, increasing government export earnings despite production shortfalls.

Fuel Prices Rise at Home

While Nigeria benefits from higher oil earnings, citizens are experiencing the opposite effect domestically:

• Petrol prices rose from about ₦1,200 to ₦1,350–₦1,400 per litre
• Transportation and food costs increased nationwide
• Inflationary pressure continues to rise

Industry players warn that prices could climb further if the crisis persists.

Calls for Government Intervention

Energy experts and fuel marketers have urged the government to use the windfall to cushion hardship.

They recommend:

• Cash transfers to vulnerable households
• Transport subsidies or relief measures
• Better pricing policies for domestic crude supply

Some analysts also argue that Nigeria’s reliance on global oil pricing exposes the economy to external shocks despite increased earnings.

Economic Double-Edged Sword

Economists describe the situation as a “two-sided impact”:

• Positive: Higher foreign exchange inflows and stronger oil revenue
• Negative: Rising fuel costs, inflation, and worsening living conditions

They warn that any future drop in global crude prices could quickly erase the gains.